Kansas State men’s basketball earned the No. 15 seed in the Big 12 Tournament following Saturday’s road loss to the Kansas Jayhawks, but the odds of making it past the first round don’t exactly favor the Wildcats.
If there’s any chance at a long-shot tournament run, or even just a postseason win, it starts Tuesday.
Kansas State opens Big 12 Tournament against BYU in rematch
The opening test for K-State comes against the BYU Cougars, a team fresh off a victory over Texas Tech. And AJ Dybantsa – he’s not here to mess around.
The last meeting between these two teams didn’t favor the Wildcats. The then-No. 10 Cougars defeated Kansas State 83-73 in The Little Apple, marking the start of a five-game slide that finally ended at home against Utah.
A historic #Big12MBB season has led us to this moment.
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But BYU hasn’t been perfect. The Cougars dropped questionable games to UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati, not to mention the loss of Richie Saunders to a season-ending ACL tear mid-February.
At the time of publication, odds favor the Cougars by 10.5 points. If that holds, the Wildcats’ season comes to an end.
A Wildcats first-round upset does more than shake up the bracket
With a first-round victory, the Wildcats could earn a second-round matchup with the No. 7 seed West Virginia, the same team they beat just two games prior.
The Mountaineers have been a hit-and-miss team this season, picking up home wins over Kansas, Cincinnati and BYU while pushing Texas Tech to the brink. At the same time, West Virginia has dropped games to Utah, Oklahoma State and most notably the Wildcats.
After putting up 85 points in Saturday’s loss to Kansas, the Wildcats appear to be finding their offensive rhythm at the right time. Pair that with West Virginia’s inconsistency, and the path to the semifinals suddenly looks a little clearer.
But the real problem isn’t the second round, it’s the third.
Wildcats face a likely elimination game against Houston
If Kansas State can takes down the Mountaineers, a quarterfinal matchup against Houston awaits. Yes, the same team that took down K-State in former head coach Jerome Tang's final game.
And there’s no other way to say it: that’s not a winnable game by any stretch of the imagination. Forget the magic of March – Houston is one of the best teams in the country, and for a reason. The Cougars have lost just five games all season, and every one of them came against ranked opponents.
In conference play, it was a three-game stretch against Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas, three teams that more than dismantled the Wildcats. Just another reason why expecting a deep run might be asking too much.
Houston’s roster is complete with Kingston Flemmings, Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Joseph Tugler, making them one of the tallest and most intimidating backcourts in the nation.
Beyond that, the semifinals and championship match hang in the balance. It starts with a win over BYU, but if the Wildcats make it that far, expect total chaos.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
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