Win 11 or watch the CFP from home.
That’s the math for Kansas State in 2025, according to the latest KFord Ratings model. The projections say the Wildcats need near perfection—an 11–1 regular season—to stay in the College Football Playoff conversation.
How many regular season wins each team should need to be in the CFP at-large discussion based on their Schedule Difficulty
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) June 23, 2025
The dotted divides each threshold. In the 9-win threshold, Texas A&M-Syracuse are closer to 8 than 10 while Northwestern-Tennessee are closer to 10 than 8 pic.twitter.com/qMo8qNRb8P
K-State is favored in all 12 games, but just barely in a few. The Wildcats have at least a 53% win probability in every matchup, with road games at Utah (53%) and Baylor (56%) posing the toughest tests.
That puts Chris Klieman’s squad in a unique spot: talented enough to make a run, but with almost no room for error.
The Sunflower Showdown at Kansas gives the Wildcats a 59% edge, while the season opener in Ireland against Iowa State sits at 65%.
At home, K-State has a clear edge. They're favored against Texas Tech (71%), TCU (72%), and UCF (85%) in their Big 12 home opener. Road games at Oklahoma State (76%) and Arizona (79%) are also favorable. Matchups with Colorado (84%), Army (93%), and FCS North Dakota (99%) round out the schedule.
The KFord model also ranks Kansas State No. 1 nationally in beating the Vegas spread at home—highlighting their strong home-field advantage among Power 4 programs.
The Wildcats enter 2025 with momentum and expectations.
Quarterback Avery Johnson is back after a breakout season, joined by playmakers Dylan Edwards, Joe Jackson, and Jayce Brown. On defense, veterans Austin Romaine and V.J. Payne anchor an experienced unit.
K-State worked to bolster its offensive line with transfers such as Terrence Enos (Pitt) and J.B. Nelson (Penn State), both of whom are expected to make an immediate impact.
The national buzz is already there. The Wildcats are ranked No. 12 in USA Today’s Top 25, No. 16 in Joel Klatt’s post-spring rankings, and No. 21 in ESPN’s Football Power Index—highest among Big 12 teams.
Kansas State finished last season at 9–4 (5–4 Big 12), closing the season with a 44–41 win over Rutgers in the Dec. 26 bowl game.
For the Wildcats, the 2025 season will be a test of consistency and resilience — anything less than near perfection could, however, end their CFP hopes.