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Predicting Kansas State's best and worst-case scenarios after Spring ball

Spring football is officially over for Kansas State, and there's a lot moving in the right direction.
Kansas State quarterbacks coach Christian Ellsworth talks to players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Kansas State quarterbacks coach Christian Ellsworth talks to players during practice on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Kansas State football has officially wrapped up Spring ball. Now that early evaluations are in the books, it's time to answer the pressing question: where's the true ceiling for this year's team?

Kansas State football: post-Spring ball expectations, revisited

Unlike other Power Four programs across the country, Kansas State opted not to host an annual Spring showcase. Sure, it's a bummer for fans, but things appear busy behind the scenes.

What is clear is that Avery Johnson is firmly entrenched as the starting quarterback, and the transfer portal has reshaped much of the roster around him. With summer still ahead before fall camp, the Wildcats now enter the next phase of preparation with plenty still to be defined.

Ceiling: Big 12 Championship win, eventual postseason appearance

Johnson appears more comfortable than ever entering his fourth season with the Wildcats. Better yet, he isn't the only in that category. The same thing can be said about the depth Kanas State brings into this season in its receiving core.

It's already a deeper group than fans saw just a season ago, with multiple young talents likely gunning for the starting roles early as their sophomore seasons. With consistent reps and multiple options, it's a core with potential to explode in 2026.

Outside of the receivers, junior running back Joe Jackson is also making a return just a season after setting the program's single-game rushing record against Utah just a single season ago. If having some sense of familiarity on offense plays into the Wildcats' hands, expect nothing less than a dominant regular season run and an appearance in the playoffs.

Floor: another 6-6 season with controlled downside

Nobody is seriously suggesting Kansas State will flop in its first season under Collin Klein, and that’s not the argument here, either. In reality, given the level of competition in the Big 12, even the worst-case scenario still leaves Kansas State with a path to a bowl game.

In the current landscape of the Big 12 conference, upsets happen, injuries pile up, and season trajectories can change at a moment’s notice. Nothing is ever truly static, especially in a league that needs constant re-evaluation week-to-week.

With that in mind, the biggest question looming remains on defense, specifically at linebacker and defensive tackle. Right now, it’s a far cry from the depth in edge rushers and safeties, and one that might become a concern if left unchecked before next season.

Kamari Burns remains the only established presence along the defensive line, while Mekhi Mason carries a similar weight at linebacker. For both groups, consistency is going to depend heavily on younger players stepping into larger roles and holding them.

If there’s a true weak point on the roster, that’s where it lives. Even so, it’s more of a developmental concern than a season-defining flaw, but something to monitor rather than panic over as September approaches.

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