Calculating Kansas State football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

Kansas State football is benefitting from the anticipation of what Avery Johnson can be as a quarterback. K-State is being talked about a lot in the Big 12 when it comes to the Big 12 Championship and who might represent the conference when it comes time for the College Football Playoff selection show.

The Big 12 Preseason Media Polls have K-State finishing second in the conference just behind newcomer Utah, but the margin between the two teams is slim. Utah received 20 first-place votes and K-State received 19. The Wildcats also had 17 overall votes less than the Utes, so it really feels like it could be either team's conference.

However, let's think about it this way, the College Football Playoff is expanding to 12 teams this year and the five Power Conference winners will get automatic bids, and then the next seven best teams will get to compete for a title. So if Kansas State doesn't win the Big 12, they really just need to be one of those next seven best teams.

So how many wins does Kansas State need to be considered one of those seven best teams?

According to the graphic above, Kansas State would ideally need 11 wins in the regular season to make it to the College Football Playoff without a conference championship.

Where will the 11 wins for Kansas State come from in 2024?

Kansas State does have a tough schedule facing five of the top seven teams in the Big 12. They have Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, and Arizona on their schedule, although the game against Arizona does not count as a Big 12 game.

So let's start with the games that the Wildcats should absolutely win.

They open the season against UT Martin at home and if they can't win that game the entire season might be in jeopardy. They then travel to New Orleans for the second time in two seasons and face Tulane, a team that was a tough loss in 2022. The Green Wave did just lose Willie Fritz to Houston so the team shouldn't be a tough game like it was in 2022, but still not a team to overlook because that loss would hurt too.

Now getting into conference play, the Big 12 games that Kansas State should definitely win at home are against Arizona State and Cincinnati at the end of the season. The games on the road they should win as well are at BYU, Colorado, and Houston.

So that should be seven automatic wins right there because those teams are just not up to par with the Wildcats right now. That leaves the games against Arizona, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Kansas, and Iowa State. The Wildcats can only afford to lose one of those games in order to hit that magical number of 11.

The games against Arizona, Oklahoma State, and Kansas are at home in Bill Snyder Family Stadium, so with the crowd on their side and they want to keep their winning streak against the Jayhawks alive, should give the Wildcats what they need to win.

That now leaves the Wildcats at 10 wins on the season and needing a win either in Ames, Iowa against Iowa State or in Morgantown, West Virginia against West Virginia. Both places are tough to play at, and the environments are tough, but looking at both teams, K-State will probably fare better against West Virginia in Morgantown.

With the way the game went against Iowa State in 2024 in Manhattan, the Wildcats might struggle again to stop the run game that the Cyclones have put together. Plus that will be the last game of the season and pressure will probably be high, especially is they only have 10 wins at that point

So can K-State reach the magic number of 11? Time will tell and it will be tough.