On paper, the first-round matchup between Kansas State and Fairfield should have been competitive. The Stags were a talented mid-major team and the Wildcats' best player was returning from a foot injury and was expected to be limited.
In reality, Kansas State just absolutely dominated. Ayoka Lee only played 15 minutes in her return, but she made the most of those minutes, scoring 17 points on 7-for-10 shooting and grabbing 10 rebounds. The Stags just had no answer, and their own star player Meghan Anderson scored just six points as K-State rolled, winning 85-41.
Up next, the Wildcats get to face another group of Wildcats as they'll take on Kentucky, which just barely snuck past Liberty on Friday.
How to watch Kansas State vs Kentucky
- Date: Sunday, March 23
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- Venue: Memorial Coliseum
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Streaming: Fubo
- Kansas State record: 27-7
- Kentucky record: 23-7
Kansas State vs. Kentucky odds, spread and total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline
- Kentucky +120
- Kansas State -148
Spread
- Kentucky +2.5 (-112)
- Kansas State -2.5 (-108)
Total
- 140.5 (over -110/under -110)
Kansas State injury report
- No injuries
Kentucky injury report
- No injuries
Kansas State and Kentucky series history
- Kansas State all-time record vs. Kentucky 0-1
Kansas State vs. Kentucky prediction
With Ayoka Lee back, Kansas State should be viewed as the favorite on Sunday even though the game is being played at Kentucky.
The Wildcats – the Kentucky ones — have a fairly good rim defense, allowing opponents to shoot 50.2% from there, which is 7.1% below the Division I average. But there's a difference between "fairly good rim defense" and "can shut Ayoka Lee down." When she's on her game, Lee is arguably the most dominant big in the nation, and the foot injury didn't seem to bother her against Fairfield.
The biggest thing Kansas State has to do in this game is slow down Georgia Amoore. Kentucky's leading scorer put up 34 points on 50% shooting against Liberty, but the Wildcats just barely snuck past the No. 13 seed, winning 79-78. The fact that Amoore played that well and Kentucky only won by one point should make Kansas State feel very optimistic. If the team can focus its energy on slowing Amoore down and force Kentucky's other players to step up, that's the recipe for a Kansas State upset win.
Though, is it even an upset? Her Hoop Stats' computer model gives Kansas State a 59.4% chance to win this game on Kentucky's floor. You can make a good argument that with a healthy-ish Lee in tow, Kansas State is the better Wildcats team.
As long as Serena Sundell, Taryn Sides, and Jaelyn Green can all score when Lee is off the floor, Kansas State should be able to come away with a close win. It won't look like the Fairfield game, but it's still set to be a good showing from a Kansas State squad that is one win away from its first Sweet 16 since 2002.