Last week was a good one for me, as I correctly called all five winners – although I only went 3-2 against the spread (and even that required a Texas touchdown victory in overtime in Morgantown). Still, I said K-State would upset Texas Tech 38-17 and pretty much nailed that one on the head, so I’m riding high and mighty this week. The most exciting Big 12 matchup is hands down when #12 Oklahoma State visits a Texas team that just reentered the AP top 25 and is on a six game win streak. So let’s see what the week has in store.
Iowa State at #18 Oklahoma (-24)
I would just love for Oklahoma to pull out a 40 point win here, then ride into Manhattan high and mighty before getting stomped by the Wildcats. At 4-2 in the big 12, Oklahoma is already out of the championship hunt, but is still playing for bowl positioning. Iowa State, at 1-8 on the season and without a victory over an FBS opponent, is eyeing its home game against KU next week to avoid giving the Jayhawks their first Big 12 win in over three years. Tickets for that game are as low as $2 on stubhub. This one won’t be pretty either. Prediction: Oklahoma 44, Iowa State 11 (big over)
Texas Tech at #5 Baylor (-27)
Texas Tech is in decline, the defense is banged up, and its freshman quarterback can’t stop turning the ball over. Baylor is intent on proving it belongs among the nation’s elite echelon of teams. This one gets ugly early, regardless of who’s playing at running back for the Bears. Prediction: Baylor 68, Texas Tech 23
#12 Oklahoma State (-3) at #24 Texas
Two questions: what would this line be on a neutral field, and what would it be if Jonathan Gray was healthy? The Longhorns are playing with more life than we’ve seen in about four years, and Memorial Stadium will be absolutely rocking. However, I stated at the beginning of the year that Oklahoma State’s defense was underrated, and though it made me look foolish earlier in the year, it’s beginning to earn that observation. This is the first game of a round-robin between Texas, O-State, and Baylor to determine the conference champion. Oklahoma State draws first blood. Prediction Oklahoma State 25, Texas 21 (over)
And now, for this week’s easy pick’em – that sure as shooting, can’t miss projection wherein Vegas has it all wrong and you can feel confident taking out a second mortgage, placing the money on this outcome and paying off your first mortgage. Or using the winnings to pay for a semester of college. The two values are roughly equivalent.
TCU at K-State (-10.5)
This line has stayed pretty consistent all week – it opened making K-State a 10.5 point favorite and almost every betting service is still there. It’s telling – people still remember that TCU has a good defense, but still think the Wildcats stand a good chance of winning by more than just a touchdown and a field goal. Standing at just 4-6, this is the game that knocks TCU out of the potential for bowl eligibility after starting the season with such lofty expectations. Prediction: K-State 34, TCU 20 and no more than 300 total yards (over)