Big 12 Football Betting Easy Pick’ems – Weekend Of September 21

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to week four of NCAA football, with Big 12 interleague action getting a little more underway, but still a week from the full swing of things. Also, welcome to my continued failings in attempting to pick against the spread. For the second straight week I went 2-6 predicting the over/under, thus confirming I am a highly reactionary prophesy who should never actually attempt to make a living at betting. We also found out that betting on TCU and Texas Tech games is not safe. Here’s where we stand to-date:

(Last Week), Season
Straight Up: (6-2), 20-5
Against the Spread: (2-6), 10-15

Louisiana Tech at Kansas (-10)

Yes, folks, KU is playing a Division I school AND is expected to win. The last time the Jayhawks beat a Division I program, the Republican Party didn’t even have a presidential candidate to run against Obama. It’s been awhile. Yet here they are, having avoided being destroyed by Rice last week and looking for a victory that may actually materialize. James Sims is averaging over 100 yards rushing per game for KU, while Tech may actually be the worse team in this match up. Prediction: KU 29, Louisiana Tech 15 (over)

West Virginia at Maryland (-5)

Following an atrocious year in which the Terrapins ran out of quarterbacks due to injuries and were actually starting a linebacker at the end of the year, Maryland should rebound on both sides of the ball in 2013. The team still won’t compete for an ACC title. But speaking of competing, did anyone else catch what West Virginia did to Oklahoma a couple weeks ago? Sure, WVU fell to the Sooners, but for a team that faced the biggest rebuilding project in the conference, a 16-7 loss to Oklahoma ain’t bad. Especially for a team that only defeated William & Mary by a score. West Virginia also beat up on hapless Georgia State last week, but don’t read much into that. Maryland does not have an impressive win to-date, and has no body of work to judge. West Virginia has at least flashed potential against respectable competition. Upset special. Prediction: West Virginia 27, Maryland 25 (upset)

Louisiana Monroe at #20 Baylor (-30)

First of all, I’m going to keep singing it until the media catches on – Baylor is not a top 20 team. They’re a top 10 team. I said it in the offseason, I said it a week ago, and I say it today. And I’m going to direct people back here a month from now when it comes true. Until then, know that even with a new quarterback under center the Bears have averaged over 300 yards passing, Lance Seastrunk is averaging 130 yards rushing per game, and Baylor embarrassed a Buffalo team that at least challenged Ohio State (the Bulls were within 23-20 at halftime against the Buckeyes). Baylor is averaging 69.5 points per game. Monroe fell to Oklahoma by 34 points. No reason to believe the Bears can’t do the same thing. Prediction: Baylor 45, Louisiana Monroe 10 (over)

Texas State at #25 Texas Tech (-27)

Some football fans want to point to Tech’s 20-10 victory over TCU as proof the Red Raiders are back. Others would argue that penalties (both deserved and some not so much) changed the course of that game. The only thing I know is that Kliff Kingsbury appears to be for real as head coach, Tech is winning games, and this offense looks scary. Texas State is fourth in the nation in only allowing nine points per game, but that sample is about to be altered in a big way. Prediction: Texas Tech 42, Texas State 10 (over)

And now, for this week’s easy pick’em – that can’t miss, go take out a second mortgage on your house to put money on this game that I got right two straight weeks before whiffing on the Texas Tech game harder than Rick Perry trying to answer three federal departments to eliminate (hoo boy did this little corner of the internet just get unnecessarily political):

K-State at Texas (-6)

David Ash is officially cleared to play in this game, but will be on the sidelines by the second quarter after a beautiful blitz by Mike Moore knocks him back out. Texas defense can’t defend the zone read. K-State wrote the book on it. Texas has only lost two Big 12 conference openers under Mack Brown. Care to guess who to? That’s right, K-State owns Texas. The Wildcats make it a trifecta this year. So in ten years, when the trivia question is ‘who gave Texas its first three losses in Big 12 under Mack Brown (while simultaneously sending him into retirement),‘ the answer is 3MAW! Prediction: K-State 35, Texas 32 (upset)