Big 12 Football Easy Betting Pick’ems: Weekend Of September 14
By Dave Thoman
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Readers, I hope you’ve been exercising this week, because the Big 12 is loading up on its last batch of cupcakes before conference play gets into full swing and there are some sweet match ups. Play begins early with a Thursday night match up between TCU and Texas Tech in what could be one of the top five games of the season when all is said and done – or could be an utter blow out. Here’s where I stand after two weeks of play:
(Last Week), Season
Straight Up: (7-1), 14-3
Against the Spread: (2-6), 8-9
So yeah, 2-6 against the spread – hopefully you weren’t taking The Jug to Vegas last week, because the house certainly came out ahead. That’s also why pundits are scared to pick against the spread – it’s easy to pick winners, it’s harder to pick whether games will be 30 point blow outs (and most games were closer than expected last weekend). Without further ado, here’s your next round of picks that nail the wins and completely whiff on final scores:
Tulsa @ #14 Oklahoma (-24.5)
Raise your hand if Oklahoma looked like a team ready to compete for the Big 12 last week. Now raise your hand if you’ve spent the past two months calling out the Sooners (oh look – my arm just shot in the air). The Sooners’ performance in Norman was pathetic on Saturday. Like TCU, Oklahoma lost its starting quarterback to injury last week and Blake Bell will finally see more than just goal-to-go situations on Saturday. Oklahoma will beat up on Tulsa, but I still say this team finishes with no fewer than two conference losses. Prediction: Oklahoma 34, Tulsa 19 (under)
Georgia State @ West Virginia (-40)
Competing with K-State for the cupcake of the week award, West Virginia takes on a Georgia State team still acclimating itself to Division I football while starting the season with losses to Samford and Chattanooga. Amazingly, West Virginia held Oklahoma to just 15 points last weekend. The problem was, the Mountaineers only managed seven themselves. Expect all the new faces to finally come together for West Virginia in this one. Prediction: West Virginia 55, Georgia State 10 (over)
Iowa (-2.5) @ Iowa State
This is just one of those games that, no matter the disparity of talent on the field, you can predict will be close and hard-fought. Unfortunately, this match up will be one of the lesser talented games the rivalry has seen in awhile. Iowa State continues trying to rebuild from last year’s losses, while Iowa attempts to rebuild from last year’s lacklusterness. Both teams will be looking to grind out an ugly victory, and whoever can break an explosive play first wins the momentum and the game. Iowa State had a bye week to prepare. Prediction: Iowa State 16, Iowa 10 (upset)
Massachusetts @ Kansas State (-39)
No one knows what to expect here. Maybe Jake Waters gets a bunch more practice throws on Saturday. Maybe Daniel Sams gets some serious work and sees 90 percent of the snaps. Actually, beyond that, we do know what to expect. UMass will either kick it out of bounds every play or we’ll be treated to special teams touchdowns by Tyler Lockett and Tramaine Thompson. The defense will probably give up one big place after doing something dumb. And Curry Sexton will continue impressing me. I have a feeling the staff wants to unleash Andre McDonald at tight end, even though Zach Trujillo is getting the majority of playing time. The question is whether that happens Saturday or next week against Texas. I do know that this team still needs a good win to build some confidence, and it won’t be until the fourth quarter that it takes the foot off the accelerator. Prediction: K-State 55, Massachusetts 13 (over)
Lamar @ #12 Oklahoma State (-47)
Lamar started its season with a 75-0 victory over Oklahoma Panhandle State, whose name is the adjective ‘the’ from creating a great state motto. Bad jokes about OK Panhandle aside, Lamar beat up on a lower-level D-II squad, but was defeated when the Cardinals stepped up a level to take on Louisiana Tech. This game won’t be any easier, as J.W. Walsh is suddenly competing for All-Big 12 honors. Prediction: Oklahoma State 52, Lamar 10 (under)
Kansas @ Rice (-7)
KU is playing a Division I program, and is only expected to get beat by a single touchdown! Charlie Weis’s inspirational bullying is working! People believe in the Jayhawks again! Rice put up a ton of yards last week against Texas A&M put couldn’t put up points when it mattered. Kansas failed to cover last week against FCS South Dakota, who only won one game last year. KU should finally beat a D-I school this year, but Saturday is not the day. Prediction: Rice 32, KU 24 (over)
#25 Ole Miss @ Texas (-2.5)
Anyone know how to pick this game? Anyone know what’s going on with the Texas defense? Bueller? Bueller? The oddsmakers believe Texas playing at home means the Longhorns can pull the game out by a field goal. Bringing in a new defensive coordinator who utterly failed to teach players how to play defense at Michigan doesn’t really bode well for those hoping Robinson can turn things around in Texas. Coming into the season, I assumed Texas was a double digit favorite in this game. Now Mississippi’s phenomenal freshmen look ready to take on the world. Quarterback David Ash headlines a group of Texas players already battling injury and there’s no reason to believe in Mack Brown entering this game, which means I’ll probably be wrong by 20 points the other direction because that’s how inexplicable college football is sometimes. Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Texas 25 (over)
And now, for your truly easy pick’em. The one outcome I’m willing to guarantee, and one of only two games I got the spread right last week:
#24 TCU (-3) @ Texas Tech (Thursday Night)
TCU lost quarterback Casey Pachall to a broken arm last week. TCU should be able to overcome the loss. Pachall’s return from rehab had the makings of a great comeback story if everything went according to plan, but backup Trevone Boykin is the more athletic option and looks better after getting a rough first year under his belt. Tech has a mighty fine kid under center as well. The highly mobile, true freshman walk-on Baker Mayfield has turned in 64-90 passing for 780 yards and seven touchdowns through two games. Unfortunately, he can’t play defense, and Tech is way overmatched on the defensive front compared to TCU. The cinderella story of Mayfield comes to an end against a superior defense this week. Prediction: TCU 34, Texas Tech 25 (over)