After comparing the schedules on Tuesday and going through the match-ups player by player yesterday, the only thing left to cover is the numbers. This time of year it’s hard to get any great evaluations from the stats because the bulk of stat building came against vastly different competition. Still, examining national rankings can give a little insight about where a team struggles and where it has strength. Stats like steals and turnover ratio can get bloated if you play against weak competition but 3 point shooting percentage doesn’t change nearly as much because of that. The arc is 20’9” away from the basket whether you play in the Big12 or the WAC. Continue reading to see how the two teams stack up according to the numbers and to get a final prediction for tonight’s game.
Here’s a side by side comparison of the most commonly used stats. All the values are per game and the number in parenthesis is the national ranking.
| UTAH STATE | KANSAS ST | |
PPG | OFFENSIVE |
72.2 (80)
73.1 (66)
FG %47.0 (29)43.8 (153)FG Att52.757.4FT %73.6 (45)64.7 (300)3PT %36.8 (61)37.5 (42)REB37.538OREB10.814.7DREB26.723.3AST14.814.2TO11.815STL4.89.2
DEFENSIVE
PPG58.2 (3)66 (113)FG%38.3 (5)42 (109)3PT%28.3 (217)23.2 (39)
Once again the question must be asked: what’s it all mean? Honestly, I don’t think it means jack. First, this is the time of year when it really is do or die in every single game that is played. That alone changes how teams perform and what they are capable of. Some crumble under the pressure, others rise to the occasion and use it as fuel. If a team’s top scorer becomes a head case anytime his team is in the national spotlight, what good does it do to know he averages 15 points a game when no one is looking? These numbers don’t tell us anymore than an overall record can. Duke, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, North Carolina, Texas, and UConn all lost more games than Utah State. Who would you say is better?
Second, the competition that these two teams faced all year long is so incredibly different that it’s impossible to gain anything from stat averages or rankings. Utah State did their work against a strength of schedule that ranked 120. Kansas State did all their work against the 11th toughest strength of schedule. If anything, Utah State should rank far ahead of every single major conference team but they don’t. The only time there is a noticeable gap between the Aggies and K-State comes in the defensive rankings which says way more about how horrible the WAC is top to bottom than it does anything about Utah State’s ability.
Final prediction: After looking at all the information over the last 3 days I feel 100 times more confident about this game resulting in a win for Kansas State than I did when the selection show aired… and even then I thought it was going to be a Wildcat victory. Seeing just who Utah State is and who they have played probably makes me overconfident. Let’s hope the same isn’t true for Pullen, Kelly, Samuels, and the rest of the men.
I want to predict that Kansas State wins by double digits. Instead I’ll give Utah State more credit than they’ve earned and say that K-State comes out on top 73-65 and gets a date with Wisconsin on Saturday. EMAW!