Who is Utah State? Session 1

The first round opponent is set but unless you are a huge fan of the Western Athletic Conference (and really who isn’t?) you probably don’t know a whole lot about Utah State. But don’t worry! Between now and tipoff on Thursday, Jug of Snyder is going to give you a crash course on just who the Aggies are. Today, we’ll start with what’s been happening recently. While overall record is important, the best way to gauge the way a team is playing is to look at their most recent string of games. The best example of that is our own Kansas State Wildcats. The team that showed up for February is leaps and bounds better than the team that was hanging around in December and January. Utah State on the other hand was consistent all the way through the season finishing 30-3. But there is still a whole lot to learn from a comparison of Utah State and Kansas State’s last 10 games heading into the NCAA tournament. Continue reading to see what that is.

Here’s a side by side look at each team’s last 10 games:

Record:9-1                                                                          Record: 8-2

Avg. Opponent RPI: 134                                                 Avg. Opponent RPI: 76

0 Tournament Teams (0-0)*                                        3 Tournament Teams (3-0)*

1 NIT Team (1-0)**                                                         2 NIT Teams (2-2)**

What’s it all mean? The records are almost identical but there is one HUGE difference: the strength of opponents that each team faced at the end of their regular seasons was about as opposite as it could be. Kansas State had to finish up with games against Big12 conference teams, 3 of which will be playing in the big dance and two others that will be in the National Invitational Tournament. Utah State finished with all but one opponent being a WAC conference foe, none of which are NCAA bound, 1 that is NIT ready, and one that isn’t even an Division 1 team although the Montana Western Bulldogs will be participating in the NAIA tournament in Kansas City in case you wanted to judge the opposition for yourself. On top of all that, the average RPI of Kansas State and Utah State’s opponents is separated by 58 points. (RPI is a measurement of how a team does against other teams figuring in how they did against their opponents as well. Read about it here.)

In other words, one school has been playing tournament quality opponents over the last month, the other hasn’t. Really, one has been playing quality opponents all year and the other hasn’t. Frank Martin has done a stellar job of preparing Kansas State with challenging schedules from the opening games of each season. It doesn’t always pay off in the win-loss column, but come March there is no doubt about whether or not Kansas State has experience playing the big boys. Martin even went so far as to mention the selection committee rewarding that scheduling philosophy with a 5 seed after the selections on Sunday. Here’s the best of Utah State and Kansas State’s non-conference schedule:

Record: 4-2                                                                         Record: 3-3

Avg. Opponent RPI: 122                                                Avg. Opponent RPI: 39.5

2 Tournament Teams (0-2)*                                        3 Tournament Teams (1-3)*

0 NIT Teams (0-0)**                                                       3 NIT Teams (2-0)**

(I didn’t cherry pick the worst non-conference opponents for Utah State. I’m not familiar with all the teams they played so I chose the most recognizable names on the schedule figuring they would be the most competitive.)

This comparison of non-conference opponents shows more than I figured it would. Not only is the RPI gap even larger at 82.5, but amidst all the drama of suspensions and impermissible benefits (Dillard’s crap) I had forgotten just how tough K-State’s non-conference really was. In the six teams show, there is a #1, a #2, a #8, a #11 seed, and two more NIT participants. Also, three of those games came within the first 5 contests of the season (VT, Gonzaga, & Duke) so K-State had to learn really fast. For Utah State, the non-conference schedule did include a #3 and a #6 seed but outside of those two, there wasn’t much to challenge them. Those two teams also account for 66% of their total season losses so it doesn’t speak volumes for their ability against top tier programs.

Let’s sum it all up. Utah State has the eye popping record of 30-3 but I’m arguing that Kansas State’s 21-10 actually holds much more weight to it. Utah State has built their record on WAC softies and no name non-conference teams resulting in a strength of schedule ranking of 120. (I do recognize that they can’t control how good the conference they play in is or who will play them in non-conference all the time either but really is that a good excuse?) Kansas State has played everyone and their dog and that’s why they finished the regular season with a strength of schedule ranked 11.

Verdict:

Last 10 games advantage: Kansas State

Non-conference games advantage: Kansas State

Things are looking good for the Wildcats! Come back tomorrow for Who is Utah State? Session 2