Well, I’ve managed to do it again. Last week I went 4-1 against the spread, the only miss being a complete whiff on the Easy Pick’em (Iowa State v. Oklahoma State). The preceding week I completely whiffed on the Easy Pick’em as well. This week I said Oklahoma gets an easy win against Notre Dame. Not just a win – an easy win. If you’re looking for a sure bet, just look at whatever I say is the easy game to predict regardless of rankings, records, or media attention. Then bet the opposite. My winning percentage against the spread currently hangs by a thread.
Straight Up: 4-1 (18-5)
Against the Spread: 2-3 (12-11)
#22 Texas (-21) at Kansas
Prediction: Texas 40, Kansas 10
Final Outcome: 21-17
How anyone is saying Texas deserves to be ranked right now is beyond me – I’ll grant the Longhorns boast a nice 6-2 record, but they’re still awful. KU almost won this one, as Texas needed a two touchdown rally in the fourth quarter to get its victory. Additionally, the Jayhawks won the time of possession battle, forced more turnovers, had more first downs, were more efficient on third down conversions, and held a 14-7 lead at halftime. It looks like Weis is close to getting his first conference victory, while Texas finishes on a four game stretch that may very well leave Mack Brown at 6-6 this season.
Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5)
Prediction: Iowa State 30, Baylor 27
Final Outcome: Iowa State 35, Baylor 21
Just three weeks ago I was still singing Baylor’s praises, remarking that they had an exceptional offense but no defense following extremely close, high scoring affairs against West Virginia and Texas. It should be no surprise how I’ve soured on those teams, so my opinion of Baylor shouldn’t surprise either. Baylor is racing against KU to avoid being the last team without a conference win. Think about that for a second. Iowa State is still a good team, by the way. They aired it out a little this weekend, and demonstrated a nice vertical attack. Then again, it was against Baylor.
#14 Texas Tech at #3 Kansas State (-7)
Prediction: K-State 38, Texas Tech 25
Final Outcome: K-State 55, Texas Tech 24
Another week, another solid win for this Wildcat team. Texas Tech remains a good football team, and outplayed the Wildcats in the first half. Because K-State really hates playing two halves of football. Granted, they’ll buckle down and do it when they have to (Miami, Oklahoma, West Virginia), but just as often put up very lackluster performances the first thirty minutes (North Texas, Kansas, Iowa State). No one can argue with the end result though: this team stands at 8-0, 5-0 in conference play, and #2 in the BCS rankings. If the championship were to be held today, Alabama would face Kansas State. Sweet.
Texas Christian at Oklahoma State (-7.5)
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 34
Final Outcome: Oklahoma State 36, TCU 14
Texas Christian is one of the most befuddling teams in the conference this year, alternating good and bad games every week. Oklahoma State lulled us all into believing they weren’t very good this year by starting off 2-2, then roared back in very good fashion to stand at 3-1 and in control of its own destiny in the Big 12. That’s right, the Cowboys are the only team besides K-State that doesn’t need anyone else to win, lose, or draw – they just have to take care of their own business. It starts this Saturday in Manhattan, where they face K-State for control of the conference. The Cowboys have Wes Lunt healthy again at quarterback, so this should be fun.
Easy Pick’em of the Week:
#5 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma (-10.5)
Easy Pick’em Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Notre Dame 10
Final Outcome: Notre Dame 30, Oklahoma 13
It’s not just that K-State needed this victory – the Big XII needed this victory with its lackluster list of quality out-of-conference wins. K-State should have received a big present by getting Notre Dame out of the championship picture while improving the quality of its opponents (a win here would’ve been the Big XII’s best of the season). Instead, Norman lost much of its mystique this year as an impenetrable castle and Oklahoma may have played itself out of a Fiesta Bowl.