Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

Well, The Jug’s first season of bad picks has finally come to a close, and now it’s all over but the shouting. Just kidding – it’s time for the most exciting part of the season; bowl games! And while the regular season’s predictions were highly touch and go (blame the Big 12 becoming the most unpredictable conference with the greatest parity in the land), be ready for much greater accuracy as nine of ten of the conference’s teams travel around the country and soak up some sun while enjoying the fruits of their labors (well, everyone but West Virginia, who gets the pleasure of playing in the wind and snow of New York). How do you ensure accuracy? Pick the Big 12!

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 27
Holiday Bowl: Baylor v. #17 UCLA (-1)

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28
Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas Tech (-13) v. Minnesota

The first of what should be two blow outs over Big 10 opponents, the only reasons for watching this game past the first quarter should be a miraculous fight from Minnesota or the promise of an exciting halftime show. No one is bored enough to want to watch this match up except diehard Red Raiders. The Big 10 was very down this year, so a team that only managed to go 2-6 in the conference probably isn’t very good. Minnesota was such a team. Minnesota averaged 21 points a game, and Texas Tech averaged 38. Sounds like a reasonable line. Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Minnesota 21

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: West Virginia (-4) v. Syracuse

The first of three Saturday games on the docket, Syracuse started whining before the teams even traveled to their locations. This is not to impugn The Orange as a collection of whiners, but their refusal to put the Schwartzwalder Trophy up for winning the game is a tad petty – it’s one Big East team demonstrating their displeasure for a former Big East team jumping ship. This move wouldn’t be hypocritical at all if Syracuse wasn’t jumping to the ACC next year, but let’s not wallow in who’s pettier. At the end of the day, a trophy that has been awarded to the winner of the Syracuse/West Virginia game every year since 1993 will not be traveling to NYC. Reason enough for WVU to crush Syracuse. Tavon Austin has found some sort of beast mode since moving to running back. Prediction: West Virginia 38, Syracuse 26

Valero Alamo Bowl: #23 Texas v. #13 Oregon State (-2)

In what will likely be the first loss of the bowl season for the Big 12, it’s difficult to put much stock in this Texas team. The Longhorns have managed to climb their way back into the rankings, will have a rested defense that was depleted all year (particularly on the line), and the three-headed running attack that had at least one back sidelined every game should be healthy as well. While Texas underachieved all year, Oregon State was an incredible overachiever after failing all year in 2011. Oregon State ranked second in Pac 12 passing and ninth in rushing. Texas has three players in its secondary capable of playing at the next level: safety Kenny Vaccaro and corners Quandre Diggs and Carrington Byndom. In fact, Texas has more talent pretty much everywhere but quarterback. Unfortunately, that talent has failed to translate into wins. Prediction: Oregon State 38, Texas 34

Buffalo Wildwings Bowl: TCU (-3) v. Michigan State

One of these games is not like the others. While most games featuring Big 12 teams should offer over/under lines of at least 65, it would be surprising if these teams combine to score over 50 points. Michigan State was a favorite to win their division in the Big 10 this year after a very successful 2011 season, but the loss of quarterback Kirk Cousins and other offensive weapons caused the team to be incapable of putting up points. TCU, on the other hand, lost playmakers on both sides of the ball over the course of the summer and even the regular season due to a variety of suspensions. Yet while TCU proved capable of scoring by averaging 29 points, Michigan State’s running back Le’Veon Bell is about the scoring option the Spartans bring to the table. Prediction: TCU 25, Michigan State 17

Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE

It’s finally here – the last Easy Pick’em of the regular season (don’t worry – The Jug promises one more set of misdiagnosed picks for bowl season as well). Surprisingly enough, the Big 12 champion remains to be crowned and it’s still possible for anything to happen – well, anything limited to Oklahoma or Kansas State winning the Big 12 trophy. The Big 12 is officially out of the running for a spot in the national championship game, but there’s still a bit of jockeying left for bowl slots (in case you missed the news, the Big 12 has nine bowl eligible teams). Nine outta ten is 90 percent – that’s a new national record! The conference may still receive two BCS bowl invitations! Justin Bieber is being sued because one of his concertgoers suffered hearing damage after the boyish annoyance “enticed the crowd” into a screaming frenzy! On to the picks!

#18 Texas at #6 Kansas State (-11.5)
This game must have a lot of oddsmakers uneasy. If the Wildcats were undefeated going into this game, they’d be considered unstoppable. Had they suffered a close loss to Baylor, it’d be written off as yet another team unable to handle the pressure of a #1 ranking. But losing by four touchdowns generally indicates a vast disparity in talent. Baylor’s dominance still has a lot of people scratching their heads. Yet if Vegas is uneasy about this game, Texas fans have good reason to be terrified. Bill Snyder is the ultimate motivator, there are rumors that Ty Zimmerman will be back, and Tyler Lockett and Collin Klein should be fully recovered from any lingering injuries they may or may not admit to having going into Waco.  Case McCoy is forced into two, maybe three interceptions as Meshak Williams plays 50 percent of the game in the Longhorns’ backfield. Prediction: Kansas State 38, Texas 21

#23 Oklahoma State (-4.5) at Baylor
The Jug spent several weeks referring to Baylor as ‘the best team that can’t beat anyone.’ Unfortunately, the Bears shed the second half of that moniker in a big way, beating K-State by a nasty score of 52-24. They followed that performance up with a 52-45 overtime win over Texas Tech. A third win for Nick Florence would allow Baylor to finish on a 4-1 winning streak with a 4-5 record in conference play and shot at a decent (though not great) bowl invitation. The problem is that Oklahoma State is the third best team in the conference, and the Cowboys could very well be playing for a Cotton Bowl invite if both Oklahoma and K-State win on Saturday. Baylor may feel good that the Cowboys’ quarterback situation is as mangled as it’s been all season, but Okie State seems to be able to plug and play with just about anyone under center. The emergence of Baylor’s running back Lance Seastrunk allows them to beat the spread, not the opponent. Prediction: Oklahoma State 48, Baylor 45

Kansas at West Virginia (-20)
Kansas. Oh Kansas. Two straight seasons without a conference win. That’s the designation the Jayhawks face unless they can leave Morgantown with a victory. The Jug has maintained throughout the season that this team would own a conference win if it played in any other league, and that includes the SEC (which is as top-heavy as ever, allowing pundits to gloss over how awful the bottom of the league has been this year). But KU plays in the Big 12, and West Virginia is the final disappointment in Charlie Weis’s long introduction to the conference. The Jayhawks play good team defense, but don’t have the athletes to shut down elite players. Tavon Austin has averaged over 10 yards per rush since switching from receiver to running back, and is a very elite athlete. West Virginia’s defense is just good enough to shut down Kansas’s running backs. KU is capable of keeping the game close, but as West Virginia can attest as it winds down a disappointing first year in the Big 12, potential doesn’t guarantee anything. Prediction: West Virginia 48, Kansas 23

And now, for that weekly pick wherein The Jug proclaims to offer an absolute can’t miss bet and then whiffs just about every time, here’s your final Easy Pick’em of the regular season:

#11 Oklahoma (-6.5) at TCU
Oklahoma, one of the best teams in the nation and playing with some of the biggest momentum in the conference, is favored by just under a touchdown against TCU. Yes, Oklahoma needed overtime to put away Oklahoma State last week. It’s also possible the Sooners are tired from their recent travels, but there’s really only one stat you need to know here: Oklahoma is 7-1 in conference play. TCU is 4-4. Landry Jones fails to pass for his third straight 500-yard game, but he does pass for three touchdowns. Prediction: Oklahoma 27, TCU 18

Kevin Jairaj-US PRESSWIRE

For the first time in over a month, the Big 12 Championship trophy appears to be in play.

It wasn’t a good weekend for The Jug’s football picks this weekend. Turned in a better performance than K-State did against Baylor, but that’s not much of a standard to hold anyone to. An 0-4 outing picking against the spread drops the season record to 18-19, which is a record only a mother could love. Additionally, a big loss by Texas Tech drops the conference to only four ranked teams. And while parity once again reigns supreme on the plains, a couple unexpected outcomes put the Big 12 in position to qualify nine of its ten teams for bowl games. Not too shabby.

Week (Season)
Straight Up: 2-2 (28-9)
Against the Spread: 0-4 (18-19)

#23 Texas Tech at #24 Oklahoma State (-10)
Prediction: Oklahoma State 43, Texas Tech 34
Final Outcome: Oklahoma State 59, Texas Tech 21
Going into this game, the only thing seeming to separate these two teams was momentum (Texas Tech was falling after achieving a top-15 ranking while Oklahoma State was pulling itself back into the polls). After this game, there appears to be a lot more than momentum separating these two. Oklahoma State looks like a great Cotton Bowl candidate, as the Cowboys should be capable of scoring on any SEC team they’re paired with. They can also get crucial stops, as evidenced by their containment of Tech’s Seth Doege.

#1 Kansas State (-13) at Baylor
Prediction: Kansas State 53, Baylor 27
Final Outcome: Baylor 52, Kansas State 24
Someone apparently found the game tape from K-State’s meeting with KU earlier this year – or at least read The Jug while strategizing for the Wildcats. The Jayhawks brought a simple yet effective offensive approach to the game: short pass to the outside, short pass to the outside, short pass to the outside, big play up the middle after the Wildcat defenders are all drawn to the sidelines. Baylor executed the plan to perfection with a game that leaves a lot of soul-searching to be done in Manhattan. The search party remains vigilant in attempting to locate where K-State’s offense got lost, but there’s been an ‘all-hands-on-deck’ request as the search enters that crucial 72 hour mark. Baylor has finally shed the tag of being the best team that can’t beat anyone.

Iowa State (-5.5) at Kansas
Prediction: Kansas 26, Iowa State 24
Final Outcome: Iowa State 51, Kansas 23
Up until the mid-second quarter of this game, the Jayhawks were playing good football the entire month of November. Then, after going up 14-10, the Jayhawks allowed 4 straight Cyclone touchdowns in just 11 minutes and the rout was on. James Sims still had a decent game for KU, but the Jayhawks played from too far behind to make him much of a weapon. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Richardson started the game for Iowa State after not attempting a single pass all year. The win pushes ISU into bowl eligibility at 6-5 with one game left on their schedule, while KU falls to 0-8 in the conference with one game left against West Virginia. Welcome to the Big 12, Charlie Weis. We hope you’ve enjoyed your stay so far this year.

And now, for your Easy Pick’em of the week, where The Jug identifies the Vegas line that’s just too easy to call (and once again fails miserably):

#12 Oklahoma (-11) at West Virginia
Prediction: Oklahoma 42, West Virginia 27
Final Outcome: Oklahoma 50, West Virginia 49
This game went from future match up to determine the Big 12 champion to uninteresting fodder. The game lost a lot of luster when K-State decided take the conference championship by force and West Virginia dropped into an unstoppable tailspin. And while no one knew it at the time, a few hours after this game ended the Baylor Bears would be pulling the surprise of the year in Waco. Before Kansas State’s upset, one of the best games this year unfolded. The electric Tavon Austin was moved from receiver to running back for the game and set a West Virginia record with 344 yards rushing. On the other side, Landry Jones threw for 554 yards and six touchdowns. His last one was a doozy, hitting Kenny Stills from five yards out with 24 seconds left to secure the victory. No matter how poorly their defense performs, it’s amazing a team as dangerous as the Mountaineers sits at 2-5 in conference play. ESPN just ranked the Big 12 as the third best conference behind the SEC and the Pac-12 – there’s no way this team fails to have a winning record playing out west.

Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

It’s that time of week again, when The Jug breaks down the upcoming match ups and lays figurative money on the line in telling you how each team will perform against spread (sometimes it’s even correct!). The Wildcats have a game in Waco that could easily be a shoot out or a blow out, KU suddenly seems like a tolerable bet to earn a victory and end its 19 game Big 12 losing streak, and Oklahoma travels to West Virginia with the conference championship on the line. Oh wait – that last one’s just something ESPN told us would happen, while the reality is Kansas State beat both foes on the road and has all but won the conference championship on its way to a number one ranking. But come on – did you really believe November’s top ranked BCS team would reside in Manhattan, Kansas? Honestly? So did we! On to the picks!

#23 Texas Tech at #24 Oklahoma State (-10)
As Big 12 teams continue to beat each other up, the loser of this match up will drop from the polls and transform the conference from a league that once boasted 70 percent of its teams in the AP poll to a league sporting only four. And while Oklahoma State could easily win this game by ten or more points, the same could be said for Texas Tech. The big difference is momentum. In the past three games, Tech has lost two by double digits (Kansas State and Texas), and needed double overtime to dispatch the 1-9 Jayhawks. While Oklahoma State enjoys a similar record, the Cowboys took their lumps early and have now won four of their past five while leading the Big 12 in points per game. As Oklahoma State continues sorting out its quarterback situation, it continues scoring points. However, Seth Doege of Texas Tech is capable of scoring a couple touchdowns himself. Give the nod to the hometeam, but securing a margin of more than ten may be a bit much to ask. Prediction: Oklahoma State 43, Texas Tech 34

#1 Kansas State (-13) at Baylor
The combination of Baylor’s defense and Collin Klein could mean Kansas State hangs 60 this weekend, and the silver fox known as Bill Snyder may just do so to remind voters that Oregon isn’t the only team in the country with a potent offense. The big question isn’t whether K-State’s offense will score at will (it will), but whether Baylor’s offense can keep pace and turn the game into a shootout. That this is a real consideration isn’t an affront to K-State’s defense but a nod to a Baylor team that leads the league in yards per game. Baylor has the offensive firepower to match some of Kansas State’s scores, but not all of them. Vegas predicts the Wildcats win by two touchdowns, but three is a more likely outcome. Prediction: Kansas State 53, Baylor 27

Iowa State (-5.5) at Kansas
Big X factor in this game: KU’s student population. Will Lawrence show up and support the Jayhawks after a six point loss to Texas followed by a double overtime defeat against Texas Tech, brimming with the hope of witnessing KU finally defeat a DI opponent? Or will they choose to stay home, having already abandoned hope after suffering nine straight losses following their season opener against South Dakota State. Weather favors the home team, as temperatures are expected to reach an inviting low 60s on Saturday afternoon. The crowd will (hopefully) give the Jayhawks a boost, and the running game that confounded the Longhorns and Red Raiders finally breaks through against Iowa State. Additionally, A.J. Klein is still struggling in his transition to weakside linebacker following the loss of All-Big 12 defender Jake Knott. James Sims has another spectacular outing against a depleted linebacking corps. Prediction: Kansas 26, Iowa State 24

And now, for your Easy Pick’em of the week, where The Jug identifies the Vegas line that’s just too easy to call:

#12 Oklahoma (-11) at West Virginia
A couple of reasons this point spread is mildly excusable: West Virginia’s offense is healthier now than at the beginning of conference play, and Oklahoma has to fly all the way to Morgantown after playing an exhausting game against Baylor last week that was decided by eight points. However, the number of reasons Oklahoma will beat the Mountaineers by more than 11 are too numerous to list due to print space concerns (though Jug of Snyder fails to provide a product worthy of actual print press, WordPress has informed The Jug its servers can’t handle the data). Suffice to say, Oklahoma remains the second best team in the Big 12. Additionally, the Sooners particularly excel at pass defense (not so much against the rush). West Virginia has been good at exploiting inferior secondaries but hasn’t demonstrated the ability to generate a consistent ground game. So what happens when Oklahoma’s secondary shuts down Geno Smith’s wide receivers? West Virginia drops to 2-5 in conference play while receiving another painful reminder that the Big 12 is not the Big East. Easy Prediction: Oklahoma 42, WestVirginia 27

Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

While K-State is the clear number one and Oklahoma is number two, Texas may have enjoyed the best win this weekend.

After several weeks of mixed results, The Jug knocked last Saturday’s predictions out of the park. The only whiff was predicting a K-State/Alabama match up in the national championship, although even that scenario remains a possibility if the Tide win the SEC, Oregon loses one of three games it has left against top-20 teams, and Notre Dame finally receives the loss it deserves. As tantalizingly close as the BCS championship game participant announcements are, there’s still a lot of football left to play. But before we get ahead of ourselves, a quick evaluation of the past is on tap:

Week (Season)
Straight Up: 5-0 (26-7)
Against the Spread: 4-1 (18-15)

Iowa State at #22 Texas (-10)
Prediction: Texas 33, Iowa State 21
Final: Texas 33, Iowa State 7
On paper, this looked to be a better game than what transpired on the field. As easy as it was to hate on the Longhorns early in the season, they’ve been a model of consistency since starting off 2-2 and now stand at #15 in the BCS standings. The Cyclones continue their plunge since losing a close game to K-State early in conference play, and must fight for bowl eligibility by winning one of their next two games. One of those games is against Kansas, but Jake Knott may be sorely missed if KU maintains its damaging ground game. Texas’s embattled quarterback David Ash had a stellar game, and finished 25-of-31 for 364 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions.

Kansas at #22 Texas Tech (-25)
Prediction: Texas Tech 36, Kansas 20
Final: Texas Tech 41, Kansas 34 (2OT)
The Jug is on the KU bandwagon. KU will likely endure another winless Big 12 season, but they’re merely a victim of conference affiliation. No other conference offers the depth of the Big 12, and they Jayhawks would own at least one or two wins in any other conference (even in the SEC, which offers cupcakes such as 1-9 Kentucky and 2-8 Auburn). Yet while Kansas is good enough to challenge many teams, Texas Tech shouldn’t be one of them. The 25 point line seemed a little ridiculous, but there’s no reason for Tech to need two (TWO!) overtimes to put the Jayhawks away. The lackluster play obviously created tension on the sidelines, as coach Tommy Tuberville was caught on camera slapping a graduate assistant (Kevin Oliver). And while Tuberville’s postgame apology implied otherwise (he claimed to merely be pulling the assistant off the field), the tape doesn’t lie. The Red Raiders may be without their head coach when they visit Stillwater this Saturday, which doesn’t bode well for a team fighting to stay ranked.

Baylor at #12 Oklahoma (-21)
Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Baylor 23
Final: Oklahoma 42, Baylor 34
The Jug designated Baylor as officially the most dangerous team that will never beat anyone going into this weekend. And while the Bears did nothing to relinquish their status, KU is moving in for a share of the title (Baylor beat KU earlier this season in a battle of the basement dwellers). As it stands, Baylor is a mere 4-5 and must do some serious work to earn a bowl bid with K-State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State left on the schedule. Yet even the winner of this game is struggling to gain much bowl love. While standing at #12 with seven wins and two losses, there’s still a chance that surging Texas supplants Oklahoma as the Big 12′s second BCS game representative (assuming the conference has two). This is the same Texas team that the Sooners walloped earlier this year. Fun fact: the combined losses of the two teams Oklahoma lost to this season is zero (just something to chew on).

West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-10)
Prediction: Oklahoma State 33, West Virginia 22
Final: Oklahoma State 55, West Virginia 34
Oklahoma State may be the most dangerous offense in the Big 12 right now, and that’s not just because they scored over 50 points against West Virginia. The Cowboys did so with their third string quarterback, and have now scored over 50 points in over half their games (five out of nine). West Virginia’s free fall continues, and it may require their season-ending game against KU to halt the plummet. Remember when Geno Smith was the Heisman frontrunner and the West Virginia/Oklahoma held a strong chance of determining a national championship participant? The Jug is just as baffled.

And now, for your weekly Easy Pick’em, where the Jug identifies the most baffling line out of Vegas and points to the easy game to put money on. And unlike the past two weeks, wherein the Jug’s pick’em not only failed to cover the spread but also failed to even pick a winner, this one truly was a no brainer.

#2 Kansas State (-7) at Texas Christian
Easy Prediction: Kansas State 37, TCU 22
Final: Kansas State 23, TCU 10
Looking back, Collin Klein probably wasn’t 100 percent on Saturday health-wise  Yes, TCU’s defense is bigger and faster than your average bear, but Klein didn’t even resemble his junior year self – he resembled the sophomore passer that debuted with a two completion performance against Texas. It may be unfair to expect perfection out of Klein, but his play has led to greater expectations than a zero touchdown, one interception outing  K-State’s offensive line seemed to break down once the offense got into scoring range, and the Wildcats only found the endzone in one of their three trips to the red zone. And while the Horned Frogs were shut out until a field goal cut the score to 23-3 with seven minutes to play, they still outgained the Wildcats in yardage 274-260. The performance was reminiscent of K-State’s 2011 campaign wherein the Wildcats won several games in spite of a disadvantage in yardage gained. That’s the type of thing a Cotton Bowl team can do as long as it wins the special teams and turnover battle. Not a national champion. Expect Snyder to turn up the heat in practice this week, and for an already reeling Baylor team to run into an absolute buzzsaw on Saturday.

Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

We’re over the hump in conference play and the Big 12′s teams all have three or four games left on their schedules before some see their seasons end, some prepare for bowl games in exotic locations, and nine teams from five states around the league gather round their televisions to watch conference champion Kansas State take on Alabama for the national championship. So put a little EMAW in your step today and prepare for the following slate of games:

Iowa State at #22 Texas (-10)
Despite the line and divergent paths these respective teams have taken over the past five weeks, this is actually a pretty good match up. Iowa State losing star linebacker Jack Knott really damaged its prospects for the rest of the season, who lost by 15 to Oklahoma last weekend. Yet the Cyclones are one win away from bowl eligibility. They came into the season expected to use a superior defense to mask offensive deficiencies while uncertain as to which former starter would be at the top of the depth chart. The exact same statement is true of Texas. Yet while the Longhorns’ defense has been abysmal, they’ve put enough points on the board to stand at third in the conference with an overall record of 6-2. I still think Texas deserves more than two losses, but a third one won’t come today. They’ll cover the spread too. Prediction: Texas 33, Iowa State 21

Kansas at #22 Texas Tech (-25)
I don’t think anyone in Vegas has been watching KU recently. Yes, they’re record is awful. Yes, they’re the Jayhawks. And yes, Charlie Weis seems to be purposefully sowing dysfunction on this team. However, James Sims has become one of the best running back in the Big 12, and would destroying opponents if given the chance to run behind the offensive lines of Oklahoma or K-State. There’s obviously no way Kansas hangs with Seth Doege and his receivers, but this team shouldn’t lose by three and a half touchdowns. Prediction: Texas Tech 36, Kansas 20

Baylor at #12 Oklahoma (-21)
Baylor is officially the most dangerous team that will never beat anyone. They own one conference win (against KU) and have allowed more points than everyone but West Virginia (313 to 318). That’s when you know you have a bad defense. However, Nick Florence remains a stellar quarterback and is throwing to the conference’s most dangerous wide receiver in Terence Williams and his deadly complement, Tevin Reese. Yet while they’re always capable of scoring, Oklahoma will score and is always capable of stopping its opponent. This looked like a good game back in September, now it looks to be over by halftime. The only intrigue is whether Oklahoma can win money for its betting followers. In a twist, Baylor keeps it close and only loses by 18. Prediction: Oklahoma 41, Baylor 23

West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-10)
Still searching for knowledge as to who will be the starting quarterback today, projecting this game’s outcome is a dicey predicament. However, the Cowboys still have a stud at running back and they seem to be able to plug and play almost anyone under center as long as Allen Chapman (three interceptions last week against OSU) isn’t lined up on the opposite side. Additionally, I’ve been harping on it awhile now, and will be fully vindicated today when Oklahoma State demonstrates it truly has a powerful defensive unit. Ball control offense and a defense that doesn’t allow big plays? The last time West Virginia met such a team, K-State destroyed them. Oklahoma State is no Kansas State, but West Virginia certainly isn’t the number five team the polls reflected earlier this year either. It’ll be a long flight back to Morgantown. Prediction: Oklahoma State 33, West Virginia 22

And now, for your weekly Easy Pick’em, where the Jug identifies the most baffling line out of Vegas and points to the easy game to put money on. And unlike the past two weeks, wherein the Jug’s pick’em failed to not only cover the spread but also failed to win, this one truly is a no brainer.

#2 Kansas State (-7) at Texas Christian
Please do not adjust your contrast settings on your monitor, you are indeed reading that correctly: Kansas State, sitting at number two in the nation with an undefeated record, is expected to win by a single score against 6-3 Texas Christian. There are a few factors suppressing the line here. The first is that the national media has a weird misconception about K-State being untested on the road. It’s true. Because the Wildcats have only played three away games and now has back-to-back road contests against TCU and Baylor, many people are worried about what will happen. Let the Jug reassure right now, there is nothing to worry about. K-State had to go on the road against Oklahoma, Iowa State, and West Virginia. Difficult outs, all three. Yet each ended with a Wildcat victory. If this team can go into Morgantown and destroy the Mountaineers, all fears about TCU should forgotten.

There’s also a lot of talk about how TCU’s defense has come into its own. Gary Patterson’s 4-2-5 will be able to swarm to ball carriers and neutralize Collin Klein’s passing game with the extra defender in the secondary. It’s been reported that John Hubert and Angelo Pease are still laughing after being told that a team which plays two linebackers will effectively bottle up the Wildcat running game. Kansas State by a mere seven? Easy Prediction: Kansas State 37, TCU 22

Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

Not a great slate of games this weekend. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Baylor-Kansas is the only close contest on Saturday (and no, close football does not make good football). Oklahoma State may play K-State close until the Wildcats turn on the juice in the fourth quarter, and Texas-Texas Tech is the new Texas State rivalry to be at following the departure of Texas A&M. Feel free to watch these games, but keep your eyes on USC/Oregon and Alabama/LSU. On to the picks!

#24 Oklahoma State at #2 Kansas State (-9)
It bears repeating: both of these teams control their own destiny in the Big 12. The Cowboys have only lost one league game (against Texas, when Wes Lunt was on the sidelines and the Longhorns seemed to have their act together). Since then the Cowboys have won three straight, climbed their way into the BCS standings, and lead the conference in yards per game. However, they visit a team that has climbed much higher in the BCS rankings, leads the conference in points per game (44.4 to Okie State’s 44.3), and has also allowed the fewest points per game in the league (17.1 to Oklahoma State’s 23.1). Do not doubt the Cowboys’ ability to run (second most yards behind K-State) or pass (Wes Lunt is a damn accurate quarterback). Do doubt their ability to stop K-State from running and passing. Oklahoma State puts up the most points on K-State all year, but the spread remains safe. Prediction: Kansas State 54, Oklahoma State 31

#23 Texas at #18 Texas Tech (-7)
There are several two-loss teams in the country. Some are ranked, some aren’t. Texas remains ranked because it belongs t0 the Big 12 and goes by the name of Texas. Its on-field results don’t suggest it deserves ranking. Texas Tech is also a two-loss team. And Tech has received both losses in blowout fashion. So maybe I’m a little hypocritical in saying that they’re still a top 25 team, while Texas isn’t. I guess that biggest difference is Tech has demonstrated that it’s capable of tackling. And has an ability to throw the ball consistently. Because if you can’t tackle or pass in the Big 12, you’ve got problems. Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Texas 26

TCU at #21 West Virginia (-6)
This is the tail of two teams caught in a tailspin. TCU was in the top #15 before it lost its starting quarterback. West Virginia was a top five team before being embarrassingly exposed by Texas Tech and K-State. Here’s an interesting stat: TCU leads in the conference in penalties with 61 for 570 yards. West Virginia has incurred half as many flags, receiving only 31 for 233 yards. I don’t like having to choose a winner here, but when you don’t know who to believe, go with the smart guy playing at home. The Mountaineers use last week’s bye to recover from injury, regroup, and beat the line. Prediction: West Virginia 36, TCU 28

#12 Oklahoma (-11.5) at Iowa State
Jake Knott is gone. Steel Jantz is back. And attempts at predicting how Iowa State will perform remain as futile as ever. Speaking of futile: Bobby Stoops, how you gonna let Notre Dame visit your house and just steamroll you? Oklahoma’s defense hasn’t played like that all year, and I’m still not sure how a team as offensive impotent as the Irish put up 30 points against the Sooners. This conference has both the worst and best teams with two losses in the nation. Unfortunately for Iowa State, Oklahoma is the latter. Prediction: Oklahoma 39, Iowa State 27

And now, for this week’s Easy Pick’em:

Kansas at Baylor (-17)
KU has been playing decent football recently. Not good football, mind you, but they’ve improved from “don’t take that weak sauce to the county fair” status to “this sauce won’t win any awards, but is okay enough to take to the county fair.” Yet while the Jayhawks have been winning moral victories by demonstrating consistent improvement, Baylor has engaged in the backslide of the year. The Bears have traded in titles, going from ranked to conference cellar dweller over the past month. Vegas bettors give Baylor a nod in a big way, because this team’s overall talent vastly exceeds what KU puts on the field. I give Baylor the victory nod too, but only because this game is in Waco. KU can’t throw more than ten yards downfield, but its running attack is developing into a scary good unit. And Baylor can’t stop anyone. Talent doesn’t necessarily mean success, and this game ends much closer than most people predict. In fact, I’ll eat my hat if Baylor covers the spread on this one. Easy Prediction: Baylor 32, Kansas 28

Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

Well, I’ve managed to do it again. Last week I went 4-1 against the spread, the only miss being a complete whiff  on the Easy Pick’em (Iowa State v. Oklahoma State). The preceding week I completely whiffed on the Easy Pick’em as well. This week I said Oklahoma gets an easy win against Notre Dame. Not just a win – an easy win. If you’re looking for a sure bet, just look at whatever I say is the easy game to predict regardless of rankings, records, or media attention. Then bet the opposite. My winning percentage against the spread currently hangs by a thread.

Week (Season)
Straight Up: 4-1 (18-5)
Against the Spread: 2-3 (12-11)

#22 Texas (-21) at Kansas
Prediction: Texas 40, Kansas 10
Final Outcome: 21-17
How anyone is saying Texas deserves to be ranked right now is beyond me – I’ll grant the Longhorns boast a nice 6-2 record, but they’re still awful. KU almost won this one, as Texas needed a two touchdown rally in the fourth quarter to get its victory. Additionally, the Jayhawks won the time of possession battle, forced more turnovers, had more first downs, were more efficient on third down conversions, and held a 14-7 lead at halftime. It looks like Weis is close to getting his first conference victory, while Texas finishes on a four game stretch that may very well leave Mack Brown at 6-6 this season.

Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5)
Prediction: Iowa State 30, Baylor 27
Final Outcome: Iowa State 35, Baylor 21

Just three weeks ago I was still singing Baylor’s praises, remarking that they had an exceptional offense but no defense following extremely close, high scoring affairs against West Virginia and Texas. It should be no surprise how I’ve soured on those teams, so my opinion of Baylor shouldn’t surprise either. Baylor is racing against KU to avoid being the last team without a conference win. Think about that for a second. Iowa State is still a good team, by the way. They aired it out a little this weekend, and demonstrated a nice vertical attack. Then again, it was against Baylor.

#14 Texas Tech at #3 Kansas State (-7)
Prediction: K-State 38, Texas Tech 25
Final Outcome: K-State 55, Texas Tech 24
Another week, another solid win for this Wildcat team. Texas Tech remains a good football team, and outplayed the Wildcats in the first half. Because K-State really hates playing two halves of football. Granted, they’ll buckle down and do it when they have to (Miami, Oklahoma, West Virginia), but just as often put up very lackluster performances the first thirty minutes (North Texas, Kansas, Iowa State). No one can argue with the end result though: this team stands at 8-0, 5-0 in conference play, and #2 in the BCS rankings. If the championship were to be held today, Alabama would face Kansas State. Sweet.

Texas Christian at Oklahoma State (-7.5)
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 34
Final Outcome: Oklahoma State 36, TCU 14
Texas Christian is one of the most befuddling teams in the conference this year, alternating good and bad games every week. Oklahoma State lulled us all into believing they weren’t very good this year by starting off 2-2, then roared back in very good fashion to stand at 3-1 and in control of its own destiny in the Big 12. That’s right, the Cowboys are the only team besides K-State that doesn’t need anyone else to win, lose, or draw – they just have to take care of their own business. It starts this Saturday in Manhattan, where they face K-State for control of the conference. The Cowboys have Wes Lunt healthy again at quarterback, so this should be fun.

Easy Pick’em of the Week:

#5 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma (-10.5)
Easy Pick’em Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Notre Dame 10
Final Outcome: Notre Dame 30, Oklahoma 13
It’s not just that K-State needed this victory – the Big XII needed this victory with its lackluster list of quality out-of-conference wins. K-State should have received a big present by getting Notre Dame out of the championship picture while improving the quality of its opponents (a win here would’ve been the Big XII’s best of the season). Instead, Norman lost much of its mystique this year as an impenetrable castle and Oklahoma may have played itself out of a Fiesta Bowl.

Jerome Miron-US PRESSWIRE

The ever enjoyable slate of conference games gets a serious injection awesome this weekend when Notre Dame visits Norman. An Oklahoma win here does three things: 1. makes K-State’s win over Oklahoma even better; 2. knocks out another BCS contender (Notre Dame is currently undefeated and has eyes on its first BCS championship game invitation); and 3. brings down Irish linebacker Manti Te’o, who currently stands as the strongest challenger to Collin Klein’s Heisman argument. The trifecta. Should be a lot of fun, so let’s get on to the picks!

#22 Texas (-21) at Kansas
Interestingly, Texas seemed less apt to beat this spread at the beginning of the season when everyone thought they were a better team. That’s when the Longhorns were only projected to score 17 points a game but hold opponents to six. Now it’s a disappointment if Texas only has 17 points at halftime, but their opponents are matching them point-for-point. I’m finally acknowledging that this Mack Brown team sports a cohesive offensive unit with damaging running backs and a quarterback capable of reasonable on-field decision-making. Kansas can’t stop anyone. I say four touchdown difference. Plus a safety for good measure. Prediction: Texas 40, Kansas 10

Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5)
It’s interesting that Baylor sits at 0-3 in the conference, doesn’t sport a winning record, and is still expected to play the Cyclones within a field goal in Ames. Nick Florence and his offensive machine still command a lot of respect around the nation, but at some point this team has to justify the respect they still command. Unfortunately, the Bears have already lost me. They don’t play defense, and Iowa State does. Iowa State has a stellar secondary. It has a linebacking unit that won’t allow Baylor to run, and can safely put a lot of nickel packages on the field to shut down Baylor’s passing attack. Did I mention that nickel package has some stellar personnel? This will result in turnovers. Turnovers are what K-State Lite (a suitable nickname for ISU) thrive on. I’ll take the Cyclones by that aforementioned field goal. Prediction: Iowa State 30, Baylor 27

#14 Texas Tech at #3 Kansas State (-7)
Normally I’d become incensed at this sort of line. K-State, the undefeated, number three ranked team in the nation, is only expected to win by a single score at home against Texas Tech? But this isn’t disrespect for the Wildcats – it’s respect for Tech. TT’s only loss was to Oklahoma. Oklahoma’s three week schedule at that point: Loss to K-State, bye week, Texas Tech. The Red Raiders faced a seething Sooner team that had two weeks to prepare. That’s a brutal match up. Plus, Tech made West Virginia look about as bad as K-State did. It takes a good team to do that. What I’m saying is, I think Tech puts a good product on the field. Unfortunately, they’re going up against a great product on Saturday. Prediction: K-State 38, Texas Tech 25

Texas Christian at Oklahoma State (-7.5)
One week after nearly falling to Kansas, Oklahoma State bounces back and embarrasses Iowa State. Speaking of Iowa State and embarrassment, remember when the Cyclones destroyed TCU? It’s also interesting that TCU and Texas Tech were similarly ranked last week. Tech beat TCU in triple overtime, shoots up the rankings, and TCU drops out altogether. What am I getting at here? These two teams are too inconsistent to predict. In these instances you take the home team in a close game. That means Okie State beats the visitor, but not the spread. Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, TCU 34

And now, for your Easy Pick’em of the Week:

#5 Notre Dame at #8 Oklahoma (-10.5)
So the media tells us Notre Dame is the better team, but everyone’s money is on Oklahoma. The reason? These Irishmen can’t score. They really can’t. Landry Jones has rebounded nicely since the loss to Kansas State and this team is dangerous. Notre Dame has relied on solid defense all season, and that does work to a healthy extent. But this Sooner team is too good not to get its points, and when it does, Notre Dame won’t have the firepower to keep up. Maybe I’m crazy, but maybe it really is that easy to predict Oklahoma to beat the number five team in the nation by double digits. Certainly no other team – including USC – will have such a large expectation of victory. This game is gonna be a lot of fun – especially for Oklahoma fans. Easy Pick’em Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Notre Dame 10

Brendan Maloney-US PRESSWIRE

Last week I went 0-5 against the spread. This week I’m employing a surefire strategy to improve my accuracy: picking winners by throwing darts. This isn’t as random as it sounds though – when I drink, I’m deadly accurate at the game. In fact, I almost never miss the dart board. On to the picks!

Kansas at #9 Oklahoma (-35)
Kansas played Oklahoma State close last week. They played K-State close in the first half two weeks ago as well. But I don’t think Oklahoma State is very good, and that close game at Manhattan turned into a blowout real quick in the third quarter. The Sooners are still out for blood, and Bob Stoops wants points on his march back to a top five ranking. Prediction: Kansas 16, Oklahoma 52

Baylor at #25 Texas (-10.5)
Texas’s All-American defense, which hasn’t looked very All-American, took a blow last week when DE Jackson Jeffcoat went out for the season (and yes, his momma really named him Jackson Jeffcoat). Texas is also revisiting issues at quarterback. Baylor hasn’t looked that good period, and stands at 0-2 in conference play following a 28 point loss to TCU last Saturday. This game could easily go either way, but I’ll take Texas by a hair – not the spread. Prediction: Baylor 34, Texas 36

#17 Texas Tech (-1.5) at # 23 Texas Christian
This could very easily turn into the best game of the week in the Big XII, and the winner will stand at 3-1 in conference play with an opportunity to control their own destiny. TCU looks ready to move on at quarterback, and Trevone Boykin looked great against Baylor last week. However, Texas Tech has a defense capable of shutting down Geno Smith, and shouldn’t have a hard time stopping Boykin. Tech would win by two touchdowns on a neutral field, but homefield advantage keeps it close. Prediction: Texas Tech 29, TCU 25

#4 Kansas State at #13 West Virginia (-2.5)
Maybe the outcome against Texas Tech was a one in a hundred chance, and if you’d play the game another 99 times West Virginia comes out ahead almost every time and is never blown out. Maybe I should worry because K-State had a hard time dispatching Iowa State. Unlikely. As I observed yesterday, this isn’t the first time West Virginia’s offense has failed to impress. And a close score was in K-State’s game plan – that 8 and a half minute drive to end the game wasn’t designed to score points, it was designed to kill the clock and never give Iowa State a chance. It worked because K-State is good enough to do it. Wildcats beat the spread, win by two scores. Prediction: K-State 34, West Virginia 25

And now, for this week’s Easy Pick’em:

Iowa State at Oklahoma State (-14)
Are you kidding me? You can’t honestly be serious, can you? Les Hunt is scheduled to come back, and suddenly OSU is a two touchdown favorite over Iowa State? There’s not a snowball’s chance in hell this is close to the final point spread. I think T. Boone put a couple million dollars on this game and Vegas had to jack up the line in order to feel comfortable about the outcome. Don’t worry oddsmakers – this is one speculation Mr. Pickens whiffs on. Prediction: Iowa State 28, Oklahoma State 27